National League 2022-23 Mid-Term Team-by-Team Review
It’s almost Christmas, the weather is crap enough to force a number of postponements and it therefore feels like as good of a time as any to write down my thoughts about the 2022-23 National League season to date and ramble about each of the 24 clubs competing to either stay in or get out.
It’s not the division it was. It no longer lives up to the stereotype of it being full of part-time football clubs and old-school managers and players. There are only three part-time football clubs, for a start. The football being played is far more modern, most sides trying to play a more patient style.
Despite that, it remains a remarkable division where clubs of all sizes can clash at any point of the season and there be little guarantee of one side finishing victorious. It’s a league where Dorking Wanderers, in their first season at this level following a remarkable rise, can beat Notts County, the oldest professional football club in the country and draw away at Chesterfield, who were 90 minutes from Championship football less than a decade ago. And Wrexham, former Cup Winners Cup competitors and owned by one of the biggest movie stars on the planet, can draw away at part-time Wealdstone. Where Oldham Athletic and Scunthorpe United can be relegated to the division for the first time ever and find themselves in the bottom four at Christmas.
This division, man.
As I always do, I’m not going to sit and pretend I’m the National League oracle and my words are facts. I watch the games, I do the research but I’m not confessing to know everything about all 24 clubs. These are just my thoughts on each club, their seasons, their players and where I think they go next. I bow to the superior knowledge of supporters who follow these clubs week in, week out and I’m happy to be given further guidance on where your club is at and where I may be incorrect in my thoughts.
One more note before I leave you with the below. I have also completed a Mid-Term Team of the Season. You can find that here:
https://rdnlmusings.blogspot.com/2022/12/national-league-2022-23-half-term-team.html
Now, here’s my take on each side in the National League.
Statistics taken from Soccerway, Soccerstats, Fbref, Whoscored, FootyStats and own calculations.
Aldershot Town
League Position: 18th
Record: Pld 21; W 8; D 2; L 11; F 30; A 33; GD –3; Pts 26
Pre-season thoughts
18th.
Early recruitment. Squad core well known to Molesley. Fancied Inih Effiong to hit double figures. Big squad churn would mean it may take time for things to truly gel and limited resource to make changes if required during season. Concern about whether GK and CB’s would stand up physically.
The story of the season to date
A season that started poorly and didn’t quite get going for Molesley. His decision for a last minute change of shape due to the sale of Jay Harris set the tone for an early season in which Aldershot looked capable but unsure of themselves, a relatively lightweight outfit that lacked a ruthlessness in both defensive and attacking thirds to punish their opposition. Molesley lost his job and the side promptly responded with three wins in a row – talk about a new manager bounce. They lost the next three but come into Christmas having won the last two and with Ross McNeilly now permanent head coach.
What do the numbers tell us?
Not much, in truth. Aldershot don’t really sit top or bottom of many lists and that in itself probably reflects a side that are better than relegation but short of anything more. Their worst subject is chances conceded, sitting fifth bottom for xGA and fourth bottom for xGA at home. Elsewhere, I think there’s an element of Aldershot being a little soft. While good discipline should be applauded, this is also a side that have committed the fewest fouls in the division and has the second best discipline in terms of cards – 21 yellows and one red. They are also one of two sides yet to pick up a single point when they have conceded first, and they have conceded first in ten of their league matches.
Who has impressed?
A lot of Aldershot Town players have impressed in flashes but doing it consistently has been the issue. I confess to being surprised by the improvement of Tyler Cordner, a player I thought struggled for Weymouth last year but appears fitter and stronger this year. Full-back Archie Davies has done okay, shining in the 5-1 victory against FC Halifax Town in which he assisted three goals. Frank Vincent has added much needed quality to the midfield while Ryan Glover, Justin Amaluzor and Tommy Willard have shone in spells.
Predictions for the rest of the season
My early impressions of Ross McNeilly are positive and it gives me hope that The Shots can once again avoid the trapdoor. However, I’m expecting it to be a relatively close run thing. They remain short on investment and the squad lacks depth so they will always be a couple of injuries away from their rookie manager needing to pull something out of the bag. They have six home games remaining against the sides in and around them which should be a positive but they will need a mentality shift – they failed to beat any side that finished lower than 11th at home last season and have already lost to Maidstone United. Change that, and they probably survive.
Altrincham
League Position: 14th
Record: P: 23; W 7; D 8; L8; F 33; A 42; GD –9; Pts 29
Pre-season thoughts
23rd.
Regretted as soon as I finalised it. Felt being full-time would help. Phil Parkinson had stayed. Would be a good football side. Worried about huge change in leadership and this Parkinson no longer being able to return to experienced core if / when things were going wrong. Lost Matty Kosylo and Isaac Marriott to long term injuries and Dan Mooney to Southend.
The story of the season to date
This season threatened to be a bad one with results going against Alty early on. However, their nine-game winless start was less about a side being out of their depth and more about tweaks being required to personnel or on-field decision making. Parkinson stuck to his guns, found his new core of players, continued to set his side out to play positively and has slowly reaped the benefits of that. They have remained competitive in matches, partnerships have developed and have now won 7 of their last 14 to pull away from the bottom four heading into Christmas.
What do the numbers tell us?
That Altrincham’s chances of maintaining their place in mid-table relies upon the games against the sides below them. While Alty have picked up just seven points from a possible 36 against sides above them, they are unbeaten against the teams 17th or lower. Alty are the most youthful side in the division with an average of 24.8 per minutes played and that perhaps speaks to the lack of a nasty streak in their game, Parkinson boys having committed the second fewest fouls and having the third best discipline in the division. That probably plays a part in them having kept just three clean sheets too.
Who has impressed?
Ryan Colclough. Typical of Phil Parkinson’s love for a restoration job, the winger appears to have put his off-field issues behind him to thrive, looking fitter and stronger with each season of regular football. He already has 13 goal and assist contributions. I’ve really enjoyed Chris Conn-Clarke, the youngster on loan from Fleetwood Town, a fleet-footed attacking midfielder with a lovely touch and low centre of gravity. And midfielder John Lundstram is coming into his own as a forward thinking box-to-box midfielder.
Predictions for the rest of the season
The only way I see Alty truly faltering now is an injury to or the departure of Colclough, who is the outstanding player in this side. And it’s no guarantee that that would derail them. Parkinson has created a well oiled unit, one in which players know their roles and the way he has navigated the early period as a full-time club speaks volumes to his quality as a manager. Alty will be absolutely fine and if anything, they might just find a way to improve their squad further.
Barnet
League Position: 5th
Record: Pld: 21; W 11; D 3; L 7; F 40; A 38; GD +2; Pts 36
Pre-season thoughts
12th.
Much needed and impressive summer of recruitment and a group created that would fit what Dean Brennan wanted and regularly spoke about. Better equipped physically. Budget stretched and would make it difficult to recruit further and not sold about quality in both boxes.
The story of the season to date
Barnet are fifth in the table at the time of writing, so there is no denying this has been an excellent campaign to date. They won four of their opening six and have won seven of their last ten. Brennan deserves credit. Barnet have been a disaster in recent seasons, never far away from a collapse, but Brennan has learned on the job and solved problems. That includes responding to a seven game spell in which they conceded 25 goals, the return of some key players and a new system bringing about some defensive solidity and improved results.
What do the numbers tell us?
That Barnet remain one of the division’s entertainers. Only Dorking Wanderers are seeing more total goals scored in games than Brennan’s boys (3.71), only four sides have scored more goals and they have conceded at least nine more goals than any other top half side. They have scored ten goals in the final ten minutes of matches and only Dorking (again) and Maidstone United have seen more goals scored by either side in the final 15 minutes of matches (22). Their defensive numbers are curious, Barnet have the fourth highest xGA per game yet outside of that goal crazy seven game spell, the Bees have conceded 13 goals in 14 matches. Home form has been key, Barnet averaging two points per game in front of their own supporters.
Who has impressed?
The spine of this Barnet team. Laurie Walker has been fine in net, a communicator and generally solid keeper. Danny Collinge looks a different player in a better side. I’m a fan of Dale Gorman and believe he has stepped up at the base of midfield with his aggression and pinpoint passing. And Nicke Kabamba has been an excellent foil up top, proving himself durable as the only striker in the squad – he has scored 11 and assisted six. Elsewhere, youngster Ryan De Havilland and ex-Eastleigh man Harry Pritchard have been excellent from a variety of roles and Idris Kanu has looked lively in his early outings.
Predictions for the rest of the season
I guess this is a case of answering whether I think Barnet stay in the top seven or not. I think they will remain there or thereabouts. What Barnet are good at, for the most part, is beating the sides they ought to beat and they are expected to beat half of the division, so it stands them in good stead. The lack of depth worries me with them being over budget. Burnout and injuries could cause problems and Brennan may not be in a position to improve the squad further.
Boreham Wood
League Position: 8th
Record: Pld 21; W 8; D 7; L 6; F 25; A 21; GD+4; Pts 31
Pre-season thoughts
7th.
With Luke Garrard in charge, Boreham Wood are in good hands. Added depth in summer rather than bodies needing to get up to speed during the season. Age of squad reduced and would likely play less games. Main concern was around where certain summer signings would fit into the side.
The story of the season to date
A frustrating one. It feels like Boreham Wood are close to what they want to be but, unlike much of last season, can’t quite get over the line often enough. Garrard prefers to deal in the currency of clean sheets rather than goal-fests and it has served him well but they just can’t get on the right side of the tight margins this season, lacking a ruthlessness in both boxes. They have been forced to come from behind in games more often than they would have liked and it means rather than holding onto a goal lead, they are chasing games more often, which doesn’t suit them as well. And yet, they are 8th and have only been beaten six times, so they are a couple of tweaks, mentally or physically, from the play-off places.
What do the numbers tell us?
Boreham Wood may have had issues keeping clean sheets (4) this season but they aren’t conceding many goals. Only Wrexham and Southend United have conceded less. They have conceded one or zero goals on 17 occasions, joint second highest, and are one of two sides yet to concede more than two goals in a league match. The issue has been when those goals are conceded. The Wood are unbeaten in the eight matches they have scored first but they have conceded first in 13 matches and only 29% of their matches have finished with three or more goals having been scored. They have led at half time on just three occasions and scored six first half goals, both divisional lows. The frustration for Garrard will be that his experienced outfit (second oldest side in the division based on minutes played) have conceded just nine goals in the second half of matches and their xG per chance is 0.143, both joint second bests in the National League.
Who has impressed?
I wasn’t entirely convinced Zak Brunt would find his place in a Boreham Wood side often set up to stifle but his technical prowess and willingness to muck in has ensured he’s kept Josh Rees out of the side. Jack Payne has unsurprisingly stepped up too having returned to the National League from the EFL. Otherwise, it has been flashes for a side that aren’t as ruthless defensively as last season, Nathan Ashmore showing his quality and it’s good to see Femi Ilesanmi back playing regularly having missed most of last season. Cameron Coxe looks a positive replacement for Kane Smith.
Predictions for the rest of the season
I’m struggling here. Boreham Wood are not far off at all. And I love Garrard, I think he’s as honest as they come and I’m always a fan of managers that stick to their principles regardless of form. However, there is a vulnerability in their game and when your structure is based around getting on the right side of tight margins, it’s costly. They have had issues fielding the same back five regularly and their midfield lacks the robustness to help make up for that. With others looking strong, The Wood are likely to be vying for the final spot and may have to miss out again.
Bromley
League Position: 11th
Record: Pld 21; W 8; D 6; L 7; F 31; A 29; GD +2; Pts 30
Pre-season thoughts
10th.
Manager Andy Woodman and assistant Alan Dunne backed with new contracts. Club generally well run, squad numbers reduced (a necessity) and settled core should keep them in contention. Concerns about age of the squad (second oldest in previous season and 30+ players signed) and whether they had learned lessons from last season.
The story of the season to date
In the summer, I predicted a 10th place finish for Bromley because I wasn’t sure what to expect from them. We’re almost at the halfway stage and I still can’t nail my colours to the mast. After all, they’re 11th in the table having won eight and lost seven of their league matches. Their issue in the early weeks was being able to finish sides off. They found the net with more regularity for a brief spell but have since seen the trapdoor open up which has led to a poor run of form. Their form appears to be mirroring last season’s, picking up the results they are expected to while falling short on the road and against those in and around them. They need a little bit more if they are to cement themselves in the top seven.
What do the numbers tell us?
That Bromley are pretty similar to last season in their results – they have won two of their matches against sides in the top 16 and picked up six wins and a draw against sides in the bottom eight. There is a pattern in Bromley’s form, starting games pretty well and falling short later on. Only two sides have conceded fewer first half goals than their nine and they have spent 54.1% of their total minutes drawing. However, they are yet to win a point in the final 15 minutes of a match, have lost more points in the final 15 minutes than any other side in the division (8) and their record in the final 15 minutes reads two goals scored and 12 conceded. Despite that, Bromley are actually creating the second best xG per chance created (0.143). They have the third worst disciplinary record in the division with 49 yellow cards and three red cards.
Who has impressed?
James Vennings is matching his technical ability and passing range with more durable qualities in midfield, which could help his career progress after some stagnation at Charlton Athletic. Corey Whitely has been freer from his defensive duties this season having swapped left wing-back for an attacking midfield role and his quality has shone on numerous occasions. Filling the goalkeeper position has been problematic but Reice Charles-Cook and Tom Smith have had some fine games between the sticks.
Predictions for the rest of the season
As above, I still can’t quite nail my colours to the mast with Bromley and that makes me cautious in backing them for a top seven finish. They will get enough results at home and against those near the bottom of the division to be a top half side. It’s whether they can show a ruthless streak on the road or against those towards the top to cement their place. I’m not convinced that will come. I actually see a similar pattern forming to last season where they bring in more players to boost the squad, mix and match a little bit only to falter.
Chesterfield
League Position: 3rd
Record: Pld 21; W 13; D 4; L 4; F 43; A 25; GD +18; Pts 43
Pre-season thoughts
2nd.
Faith in Paul Cook to turn things around. Very clear recruitment plan over the summer with a younger side, good depth, plenty of athleticism and a group that would score goals. Tone set in pre-season for positive start. Huge squad churn would be the only issue and new group responding to setbacks when they come.
The story of the season to date
If you would have offered Paul Cook just over two points-per-game after 21 league matches, I’m sure he would have taken it. Last season finished disastrously and led to Cook making wholesale changes over the summer. All that considered, it’s a pretty good start. And yet, they find themselves third in the division and eleven and seven points behind Notts County and Wrexham (albeit with a game and two in hand). Managers usually advise that they don’t look at the league table and I think it would be best for Chesterfield players and fans not to. They've had a fine start to the season, are in the third round of the FA Cup and if they continue in the same vein, they could well be near or near about come the end of the season.
What do the numbers tell us?
Paul Cook likes to play an attacking, progressive style of football and he’s getting just that. His side have kept on average 55% of possession, joint second most, have scored more goals than any side outside of the top two, have scored in every league match with the exception of one and sit fourth for xG. Fast starts have been key. They have scored seven goals in the first ten minutes of matches (highest), scored first in 14 matches (second most), led for 45% of all minutes played (second most) and they are yet to lose a game when they have scored first (11 wins and three draws). Their home record has been key, winning nine of their 11 matches. In fact, if you remove the bizarre three-defeat week in October, the Spireites have won 13, drawn four and lost one match this season, which puts them at 2.39 points per game. They have an issue allowing the opposition to score – 67% of their games have involved three or more goals being scored and 71% of their matches have seen both teams score. Impressively, Chesterfield have played five of the top eight at home and won every game, scoring at least two goals in each of those.
Who has impressed?
Jeff King. He just continues to improve. Now playing as a nominal right-back yet his attacking output is stronger than most forwards in the division. Ahead of him, Liam Mandeville has had a good start to the season, offering control in forward areas while the elusive Armando Dobra has been excellent down the left when fit. Ollie Banks and Darren Oldaker have proven fantastic additions to the midfield, both showcasing a wonderful passing range. Joe Quigley hasn’t always scored the goals but he has been an excellent foil in attack. Jamie Grimes has become a favourite with supporters for his attitude to defending.
Predictions for the rest of the season
I think more of the same. They may tighten up a little defensively, especially with the signing of Ash Palmer, they will continue to score goals because of the quality and structure of their attack and they will win a lot of games. I will happily back them for a top three finish. Whether they can chase down and overtake the top two is a different question. They will need to improve further on what they’ve already done and even that might not be enough – they will need 2.08 points per game here on out to reach 95 points.
Dagenham and Redbridge
League Position: 13th
Record: Pld 20; W 8; D 5; L 7; F 34; A 36; GD -2; Pts 29
Pre-season thoughts
6th.
One of the best sides the previous year in terms of xG both offensively and defensively. Forwards score goals and gave themselves options defensively over summer. One of the more stable squads in the division. Question was whether they could find consistency in results and realise their potential.
The story of the season to date
Chaos. There is an expectation at Dagenham and Redbridge that they should be challenging for promotion yet they are one of the most unpredictable sides in the division, driving supporters crazy – even if they are a lot of fun to watch as a neutral. After all, they have beaten both Chesterfield and Solihull Moors away from home but lost against Torquay United on their own patch. Daryl McMahon hasn’t had it easy, hitting runs whereby he’s had one or no central defenders available or been forced to loan in wing-backs to cover for injuries. He’s also been without Angelo Balanta and Paul McCallum for long periods. To both the benefit and detriment of his team’s results, McMahon has stuck rigidly to his preferred formation and will be hoping for the chance to do similar with personnel to commit to yet another late run for the top seven.
What do the numbers tell us?
Not a huge amount. Dagenham and Redbridge are a wildly inconsistent outfit. They sit third for total goals per game, helped enormously by a seven game stretch in which five or more goals were scored in each. Outside of that, it’s 30 goals total in 13 matches, which places them in the bottom half. They continue to have defensive issues, however, keeping just two clean sheets this term. The Daggers fare better at home than away, one of five sides picking up a point more per game on home turf than on the road. There has been a definite drop off in their xG numbers from last season, accruing the fourth lowest per game away from home. Perhaps surprisingly, they have had the third smallest share of possession across the campaign, averaging 46%.
Who has impressed?
When the Daggers are at their best, it’s often their forward line at the centre of it. Junior Morias was a surprise signing last season but he has more than justified his worth. At the other end, Elliot Justham has again been excellent, leading to claims from supporters and his manager that he’s the best goalkeeper in the division. Elsewhere, injuries have affected the form of many. Matt Robinson has been a mainstay, Mo Sagaf has shown a steady improvement and credit to Harry Phipps for making the most of a rare first-team chance to make a central defensive role his own.
Predictions for the rest of the season
I’m positive about The Daggers still. A lot of their issues this term have been down to injuries and the need for players to play either out of position or bring in loanees to cover. They tend to utilise the lack of a transfer window quite well to bolster the starting XI and we are seeing already that a more settled side can wield better results and performances. If they remain in with a shout come mid-February, don’t be surprised to see them put together a run of form that gives them a chance.
Dorking Wanderers
League Position: 15th
Record: Pld 24; W 8; D 5; L 11; F 42; A 54; GD –12; Pts 29
Pre-season thoughts
13th.
Dorking would score a lot of goals that would be key to them not just surviving but thriving. Also felt stability of squad, management and culture would play an important role. They would relish bloodying noses. Always likely to concede a lot of goals and being part-time and inexperienced at the level, I felt they might struggle to put runs of results together. Learning curve for all involved.
The story of the season to date
Bunch of Amateurs will sum this up better than I can but I’ll give it a go. It’s been a big learning curve for Marc White, his coaching staff and the majority of the players. Dorking have been on an almighty rise up the divisions but they are now regularly playing against full-time opposition, something they haven’t done before. To their credit, they have continued to play an expansive, exciting style of football and for all the goals they are conceding, they have also produced a number of wonderful results, not least against Chesterfield and Notts County. The Wanderers were always likely to be a fun addition to the National League and they haven’t disappointed.
What do the numbers tell us?
Unsurprisingly, that there are a lot of goals in Dorking Wanderers football matches. There are four goals total on average per game, 79% of their matches finish with at least three goals and 75% see both teams score. No side has conceded more, only the top three have outscored them. They have scored three or more goals on seven occasions, third highest behind the top two. Their games become more enjoyable the longer they go on. Only Maidstone United have conceded more second half goals and only the top two have scored more. They have scored ten goals in the final ten minutes of matches, joint highest. Their xGA is the second worst in the division but their xG per chance created is the fourth best. They have only picked up three points from the 12 games in which they have conceded first. Their subs have played the most minutes per appearance on average, owing to a number of in-game injuries and half-time tactical substitutions.
Who has impressed?
James McShane. The attacking midfielder has never played at this level before yet only Macaulay Langstaff has outscored him, and that’s despite picking up a number of knocks during the campaign. Niall McManus has never let the side down despite being thrust into a number of roles. Josh Taylor and Dan Gallagher have stepped up well. Bobby-Joe Taylor has had some fine individual games. Seb Bowerman is one to keep an eye on after a bright start.
Predictions for the rest of the season
I think more of the same. Whenever he can, White will set his team up to dominate the ball, play for overload out wide and get players into the box to attack crosses, so they will always offer an attacking threat. Sorting out their defensive issues could be tricky and it will likely remain a concern across the entire season. They’ll bloody a few more noses, especially at home, but probably come unstuck a few more times.
Eastleigh
League Position: 9th
Record: Pld 23; W 9; D 4; L 10; F 26; A 29; GD -3; Pts 31
Pre-season thoughts
16th.
Felt the squad was of a good age and that they had an extra physicality and leadership in the group. Never going to be troubled by relegation. Concern about big squad churn, who would step up long-term if Aaron Martin was unavailable and which Lee Bradbury we would find – his career has been hit and miss.
The story of the season to date
This could probably summed up in five words: Good at home. Bad away. I’ve been pleasantly surprised by Eastleigh for the most part. I had concerns that with so many key personnel from recent years leaving at once, the Spitfires would be left with a hole in the dressing room as well as on the pitch but the club’s decision to recruit players dropping out of the EFL has worked so far, an oft-experienced spine supported by younger, energetic footballers who have also shown versatility with Bradbury happy to change system on a game-by-game basis depending on the opposition or availability of players. There is still a naivety to the group but the early signs have been positive, particularly in front of home supporters.
What do the numbers tell us?
That Eastleigh are very good at home but poor away. They have the fourth best home record (26 points from 12 matches) and the third worst away record (five points from 11 matches). Unsurprisingly, their 1.72 points per game swing between home and away form is the biggest in the division. Another curious statistic is that Eastleigh have had the fourth most shots at goal in the National League yet they are one of four sides to only score more than two goals in a game once all season.
Who has impressed?
I’ve found that Eastleigh have impressed more as a unit rather than individuals but that doesn’t mean players haven’t stood out. I’m a fan of Brennan Camp, a fiery right-sided defender who screams fan favourite. Aaron Martin was greeted like a member of the family returning and has been a steady presence at the back, in front of the ever reliable Joe McDonnell. Charlie Carter’s forward forays from midfield have given the side additional energy and creativity and youngster JJ McKiernan has taken to pro football like a duck to water.
Predictions for the rest of the season
Eastleigh’s home and away form is wildly contrasting and, home comforts aside, there is little reason for it from a performance perspective so that near two-points-per-game swing will narrow somewhat. The Spitfires are firmly in contention for the top seven at present but my thoughts are that their inability to field a consistent XI and formation will catch up with them as the season progresses. I anticipate a strong mid-table finish, which feels like progress from the outside looking in after a difficult 2021-22.
FC Halifax Town
League Position: 10th
Record: Pld 22; W 9; D 4; L 9; F 21; A 27; GD –6; Pts 31
Pre-season thoughts
14th.
Huge fan of leaders signed from local clubs and felt there would be a clear attacking approach based upon signings. Club used to being written off so would fare okay in that respect. Big squad churn would cause issues, as would appointment of novice manager to replace one who earned move up the leagues.
The story of the season to date
It could scarcely have started worse. After 11 games, the club were bottom of the league table, had scored six goals, been walloped 5-1 by Aldershot Town live by BT Sport and 4-0 at home by Woking. Chris Millington’s managerial journey looked to be ending as quick as it started. To his credit, he’s turned it around. The Shaymen have won six and drawn two of their last eight matches, a more settled formation and starting XI helping with that upturn with Millington working out who he can rely upon from his new squad. They reach the halfway point of the season in the top half, a solid effort.
What do the numbers tell us?
That if you want entertainment, Halifax are one of the clubs to avoid. Their games are averaging 2.18 goals per game, third lowest, 27% of their games have seen three or more goals scored (second lowest) and 36% of their games have seen both teams score (lowest). The Shaymen have scored 21 goals (second fewest), six first half goals (joint lowest) and more than twice in a game once (joint lowest). Those numbers are warranted. They have the third lowest xG, have taken the second fewest shots, second fewest corners and their xG per chance is also the second lowest. Fortunately, they have been strong defensively, particularly at home where their xGA is the second best in the division – little wonder they are accruing two points per game at the Shay.
Who has impressed?
Kian Spence is one of the most exciting young players in the National League and he’s stepped up again this year, becoming a leading man for this Halifax side. Sam Johnson remains Mr Consistent in net and Luke Summerfield is rolling back the years in midfield. Jack Senior has been ever-reliable and Jamie Cooke is having his breakthrough campaign.
Predictions for the rest of the season
Halifax are absolutely in contention for a play-off spot now and it would be some effort if Millington managed to complete the turnaround. Their defensive numbers are excellent and it gives them a chance, especially through the winter months when clubs need to be dogged and grind out results. That home pitch will give them a bit of an advantage too, as will the consistency and structure of their team. The durability of some of their younger players could be tested over the course of a long season and that’s the only way I see them faltering – their experienced players will need to step up.
Gateshead
League Position: 23rd
Record: Pld 22; W 3; D 8; L 11; F 25; A 38; GD –11; Pts 17
Pre-season thoughts
17th.
Lost Macaulay Langstaff and Cedwyn Scott which was a blow and limited resource to replace and improve. However, Langstaff and Scott weren’t prolific before joining and felt others would step up. Squad stability key and unity throughout the club. Main concern was potential of Mike Williamson leaving.
The story of the season to date
Gateshead’s season started off promisingly, a lack of results more to do with a lack of ruthlessness at either end than generally poor performances. However, rather than push on and earn some results, they have regressed, winning one of their last 11 and seeing their performances dip, evidenced by their xG numbers. What hasn’t helped Williamson is that after their okay start, he lost leading defender Louis Storey and has also had to contend with Owen Bailey, Greg Olley and Robbie Tinkler being unavailable, while also trying to strike the right balance in attack where only Adam Campbell remains from the quartet that spearheaded their promotion. The lack of stability throughout the squad
What do the numbers tell us?
That Gateshead lack staying power. They are one of five sides yet to win back-to-back matches and their longest unbeaten run is three matches. They have kept one clean sheet all season. They can’t perform for an entire half of football, failing to score in the final 15 minutes of any first half and the final ten of any match – they have conceded eight and seven in the same periods. They have scored 13 goals in the second half of matches, second fewest. Their discipline isn’t great either, their 49 yellow cards and two red cards the highest in the league. If there is a positive, it’s that they have lost just one of seven home matches against the top seven.
Who has impressed?
I’m a huge fan of Greg Olley. Head on a swivel, always looking for the forward pass - the creative hub of this team. Adam Campbell is having a fine season, stepping up in the absence of last season’s sharp shooters to cause havoc in the final third from an inside forward role. Owen Bailey has impressed, a versatile midfielder who tends to start deep but is happy to break forward. James Montgomery’s experience has shown at times too.
Predictions for the rest of the season
Gateshead remain capable of survival. The positives are definitely that Williamson and a core of last season’s side remain. Navigating the winter months will be tricky with the increased schedule, small squad and short-term loans but if they get through that, they stand a chance. My worry is that Gateshead have had an issue with their more experienced players staying fit and they lack the financial resource to spend when others around them will. They will need the right option to become available for the right price to either tighten them up or fire them to safety and they might just fall short on finding that, or those, individual(s).
Maidenhead United
League Position: 17th
Record: Pld 23; W 8; D 4; L 11; F 25; A 31; GD –6; Pts 28
Pre-season thoughts
21st.
Goals were my worry. They had sorted their goalkeeping issue out. Alan Devonshire remained at the helm. They’d continue to upset a couple of the big boys at home. But they had lost Josh Kelly. Sam Barratt has long struggled for regular games due to injury. Would their new look front line score enough goals?
The story of the season to date
Maidenhead are gonna Maidenhead. I was worried a lack of goals would hurt them this season but I hadn’t banked on the Magpies being so strong defensively that scoring goals would become less of an issue than in previous campaigns. Alan Devonshire has again shaken the pack around his usual core, giving a number of young, up and coming or unwanted players the chance to thrive within the team structure and it again paying dividends, his side well organised, tenacious and physically adept. And as ever, they’ve bloodied a few noses, beating Chesterfield, Woking and Bromley.
What do the numbers tell us?
That Maidenhead can’t be defined by numbers. They’ve only been ahead for 13.8% of their matches and been behind your 38.6%, second worst on both counts. They’ve had the lowest average possession of any side in the division. They’ve finished the first half in a losing position on 12 occasions (joint most) and failed to score in 39% of their matches, joint second highest. They’ve also committed the most fouls in the division. It reads like a team in the bottom four but this is Maidenhead United. They’ve won seven of the eight games they’ve taken the lead in and the only surprise is that they’ve actually taken more points against bottom half sides than top half. So far, at least.
Who has impressed?
I want to shout out Reece Smith here. He’s been involved in the Maidenhead squad for a couple of seasons now but looks ready to make an impact this season, quicker, stronger, fitter. He could be the next on the road to the EFL via Maidenhead United. Dan Gyollai has solved the goalkeeping issues that no doubt caused Devonshire some headaches last season. Remy Clerima has been a key figure whether employed at centre-half or on the right-wing and the same goes for the giant Cole Kpekawa at centre-half or left-back. Also, Charlee Adams can really strike a ball.
Predictions for the rest of the season
They’re Maidenhead United. They’re probably going to hit a run where they lose five in a row then earn ten points over February and March when they face FC Halifax Town, Wrexham, Boreham Wood and Woking. They’ll achieve survival early enough to not have to worry too much about the final couple of weeks and Alan Devonshire will yet again be lauded for a job well done.
Maidstone United
League Position: 20th
Record: Pld 24; W 5; D 6; L 13; F 30; A 53; GD –23; Pts 21
Pre-season thoughts
20th.
Clear structure and discipline within a stable squad. Unlikely to thrive as wouldn’t be as dominant physically and talented forwards wouldn’t be as high up the pitch to find the net as regularly. Joan Luque also missing early season.
The story of the season to date
This season has been a struggle for Maidstone United amid defensive issues, injuries and a lack of firepower but they sit 20th and would take that come the end of the season. Their start was positive enough, winning three of their opening six but what followed was a 12-game winless run during which Hakan Hayrettin used three goalkeepers, swapped out centre-backs and strikers and changed shape in a bid to turn form around. A return to basics saw results briefly improve. However, The Stones simply haven’t recruited well enough to both improve the starting XI and replace those with long-term injuries leaving them firmly in the battle for survival.
What do the numbers tell us?
Firstly, if Maidstone are to survive, it’ll likely be because of their results against sides around them than anything else. They’ve won five and drawn two of their nine matches against sides in the bottom nine but have lost 12 of 16 against sides in the top 15 and conceded two or more in every defeat – it’s little wonder they’ve conceded the second most goals in the division and most in the second half of matches. They don’t start matches well, leading at half time on just four occasions. They’ve also spent 35.8% of total minutes played behind in matches (third highest). However, concerns about team spirit can be countered by the seven points won in the final 15 minutes of matches – no side can better that. Discipline is an issue with their five red cards a division high and they aren’t consistently creating good chances either – only two sides have a worse xG per chance.
Who has impressed?
Roarie Deacon was one of the first players in the division to truly catch the eye this year, a winger with flair and a penchant for making things happen in the final third – he has 12 goals and assists to his name. The midfield pair of Regan Booty and Sam Corne have also impressed at times, the former a deep-lying midfielder with a lovely left foot while the latter is a busy 8/10 type who likes to break forward to link midfield and attack.
Predictions for the rest of the season
I’m struggling to make a case for Maidstone avoiding relegation with relative comfort. They’re going to be involved in the scrap. This is a side who have consistently shown they are too leaky defensively and at the other end, nobody has stepped up to replace Joan Luque or truly challenge Jack Barham. Their recruitment this season doesn’t fill me with confidence that they will improve the side (none of their summer additions have staked a claim to start regularly) and though they have injured players to return, it will be asking a lot of them to make immediate impacts having missed over half the campaign. They’ve only got three home matches against sides in and around them too, which is where over half of their points have come from. Factor in fans getting frustrated with manager Hayrettin and it could be a long old end to the season.
Notts County
League Position: 1st
Record: Pld 23; W 16; D 6; L 1; F 59; A 21; GD+38; Pts 54
Pre-season thoughts
4th.
Notts County always likely to be well coached, score goals, be excellent in front of a big home crowd and will control the majority of their games. Concerns about the title lay around fitness of Kyle Cameron, Ruben Rodrigues staying out and whether they have definitely ironed out the issues that cost them last season.
The story of the season to date
Winning games. Losing few. Scoring goals. Conceding few. Good on the eye. Best xG numbers. Top of the league. What’s not to love about Notts County at the moment? I had concerns about whether Luke Williams would add the steeliness required to turn this Notts side from a fun footballing team to one that was ruthless enough at both ends to be serious title contenders but I’ve been proven wrong, the ex-Swansea City assistant showing he’s more than just a coach of pretty football. The club have got their recruitment spot on and are showing few signs of letting up in what could become an almighty tussle for the title between two giants of the non-league game.
What do the numbers tell us?
That Notts County are very, very good. Top of the league. Most wins. Fewest defeats. They lead tables for most goals scored, xG, xGA, xG per chance created, away form (also unbeaten at home), longest winning run of wins (7), longest unbeaten run (14), games scored in, scoring three or more (11) and four or more goals (6) in games, time spent leading matches (50.3%) and being behind (6%) and shots taken. They also rank high for goals conceded (3rd), clean sheets (2nd) and conceding one or zero goals (2nd). How are they doing it? Strong starts and control. They have taken the lead in 18 of their 23 matches, are yet to concede a goal in the first 15 minutes of a match, have scored more and concede fewer first half goals than any side in the division and they have an average of 65% possession per game, at least 10% more than any other side. They aren’t bad in the second half to be fair, having the second best record and scoring second most goals. Two final notes. They have not conceded a home goal against a side currently placed 17th or lower and their average attendance is the second highest in the league (just over 7k per game), helped by the club breaking the National League record attendance figure.
If you want more in-depth Notts County data, visit @tomhwilliams23 and @notts_stats on Twitter.
Who has impressed?
Let’s get the obvious one out of the way – Macaulay Langstaff has stepped up a division and plundered home 21 goals in 21 90’s. Abnormal. Adam Chicksen is having the season of his life, scoring seven goals from left wing-back and being a great outlet for the side. A fully fit Kyle Cameron has been a big plus for this side. Matty Palmer remains a player every manager in the division would love to have at the base of their midfield and though he isn’t hitting numbers at the same rate, Ruben Rodrigues is still the most gifted player in the division as far as I’m concerned.
Predictions for the rest of the season
Notts County have produced a remarkable season to date and deserve their place atop of the division. The question is whether they can sustain it. To reach 100 points, they would need to sustain a two points per game average, which feels achievable. People discuss the rumoured Macaulay Langstaff move but Notts’ owners are smart cookies, they will have a plan for that eventuality and already have quality players chomping at the bit for regular football. I can’t call the title race but I don’t see Notts dropping out of it.
Oldham Athletic
League Position: 21st
Record: Pld 21; W 5; D 5; L 11; F 22; A 33; GD –11; Pts 20
Pre-season thoughts
15th.
The takeover was huge to this prediction. Experienced core would have helped at times. John Sheridan and fans had a good relationship but he was likely to leave the club at some point. Big squad churn and change of tactics / playing staff during season likely.
The story of the season to date
In many ways, their season has gone as expected. John Sheridan leaving wasn’t a surprise and the club backing their new manager, who unsurprisingly has an Everton connection, to overhaul a hard-working and diligent but limited group was to be expected. Did we all expect Oldham to be 21st in the league table at this juncture? Probably not. The David Unsworth project has been a slow-burner, to say the least with form only falling to new depths during his tenure. However, it’s fair to say that his job is about more than simply improving the playing staff and style of football but also about creating a new culture at a club that has long been in the mire and needs upgrades on and off the field. Fans are already concerned that Unsworth isn’t the man for the job, however, and the much anticipated turnaround in form needs to come sooner rather than later.
What do the numbers tell us?
That a mentality shift is desperately required at this football clubs. For starters, the Latics have won one and lost 11 against sides currently in the top 14 of the division – all but three of their points have been achieved against bottom ten sides. They have failed to win back-to-back matches. They have failed to win a single match away from home, earning four points from 11 matches. They have failed to pick up a single point from the ten matches during which they have conceded first. Goals are the key issue here, Oldham scoring just 22 (third fewest) across the season, including just five away from home, four in response to going behind and six in the first halves of matches, all divisional lows. And despite all of the above, only Notts County and Wrexham can lay claim to bringing more supporters through the gates on average this season, so credit to the Oldham Athletic supporters.
Who has impressed?
Nobody consistently, which is the problem for Oldham. Only three players have played more than 65% of total minutes this season. Two of those have impressed, at least. Ben Tollitt has been the standout for the Latics, a rangy winger with an eye for the spectacular. Nathan Sheron is the other, a player that has performed diligently in a number of roles amid changes of shape and personnel. Mike Fondop Talom is inconsistent but a real handful when on his game and looks to have earned himself a role in the new set up. It’s time for others to stand up now.
Predictions for the rest of the season
David Unsworth’s start at Oldham Athletic hasn’t gone to plan but it’s far too early to be making sweeping judgements about his short- and long-term suitability as manager. There has been a chronic lack of stability about their season to date. A managerial change, a raft of summer signings, most of whom found themselves on the treatment table and replaced by short-term loanees before another big expenditure on the playing staff. The squad Unsworth has now is far stronger than the one that started the campaign and the one he inherited. They look to be settling into a particular shape and I believe they have the quality, experience and dressing room knowhow to start dragging themselves away from the bottom four. What happens beyond that is anybody’s guess.
Scunthorpe United
League Position: 24th
Record: Pld 23; W 3; D 7; L 13; F 27; A 47; GD –20; Pts 16
Pre-season thoughts
19th.
Survival due to an experienced core and a takeover being close, providing additional resource. Issues early on due to few players being in the prime of their career, being unable to match energy levels of other sides and defence being immobile.
The story of the season to date
Few followers of National League football would have been surprised in the summer if Scunthorpe United had been relegated and the only reason many didn’t back it was because of the impending takeover. That has only been confirmed in the last week or two and The Iron have kept finances tight in the meantime, Keith Hill still not having been replaced permanently and interim managers Tony Daws and Michael Nelson having their hands-tied in terms of selection due to a lack of available resource to improve the squad. Daws did at least see improved performances upon taking the job but wins didn’t follow and things have only gotten worse as the quality of opposition increased.
What do the numbers tell us?
That it’s hard to put a positive spin on Scunthorpe’s terrible campaign to date. Like fellow newcomers Oldham Athletic, a mentality shift is required. The Iron have picked up just one point from 12 games against sides in the top 13. They are yet to win back-to-back matches. They are yet to win a football match away from home. They have scored the first goal on just five occasions and led at half time on just four occasions. They have conceded more first half goals than any other side (23), scored the second fewest second half goals (13) and kept one clean sheet. No side has spent a smaller percentage of their matches leading (13.7%) and their xGA at home is the worst in the division (third worst overall). Only Maidenhead United see less of the ball on average than Scunny too.
Who has impressed?
Rob Apter. The one player in this Scunthorpe side who looks like he is ready to take the next step up the ladder with his quick feet, sharp acceleration and direct wing play. Jacob Butterfield may not have the legs he once had but his class has shown at times. Alfie Beestin is slowly growing into his role in midfield and prior to his departure, Joe Nuttall looked to have something about him, albeit inconsistently.
Predictions for the rest of the season
There are two ways this goes now. The first, and most positive option, is that the new owners put financial resource in place, select a strong manager who can overhaul the playing personnel and find a way to survive. The other, and seemingly most likely at the current time, is that they continue in same fashion as they are now – and that ends in relegation. Again. The team is poor. They have been using interim managers for over three months. They have already surpassed the halfway point of the season and have played more than the sides above them. If the situation doesn’t change in the very near future, Scunny will be a National League North club next season.
Solihull Moors
League Position: 7th
Record: Pld 21; W 9; D 6; L 6; F 35; A 24; GD +11; Pts 33
Pre-season thoughts
3rd.
Was worried that the short-break due to the play-off final would be an issue, as well as losing the excellent Harry Boyes’ output. New deal for Joe Sbarra showed their ambition and core of squad from last season remained. Club well run, better depth and squad almost entirely aged between 22 and 30.
The story of the season to date
A season that has promised plenty in flashes but hasn’t quite delivered on expectations. It’s difficult to know how to rate them. Everybody knew that it would take time to recover from that play-off final defeat and despite a number of key players suffering mid-to-long-term injuries, they sit in the top seven halfway through the season, so it’s not been a poor start. But The Moors have fallen well away from the race for automatic promotion and have had real difficulty putting teams to bed, too often conceding first or an equalising goal that has left them with too much to do. They are also underperforming in terms of their xG, regularly conceding as many, if not more, chances to the opposition rather than controlling games in a way they proved they could last season. There’s something missing in their game and they need to find the missing piece or two if they are to cement themselves in the play-off positions.
What do the numbers tell us?
That Solihull Moors need to start games better if they are to secure their place in the top seven because they are capable of lasting the course in matches. They are yet to score in the opening ten minutes of a match and have scored first in just nine of their 21 matches. When they get ahead, they’re good, winning seven and drawing two of those matches. Only two sides have conceded fewer second half goals (11), no side has won more points in the final 15 minutes of matches (7) and their record in the final ten minutes of matches reads nine scored and two conceded. Their general performance is as expected, having the joint second highest average share of possession (55%), sitting third for shot accuracy (over 54% of shots on target) and sitting 5th for xG for. Typical of an Ardley team, the Moors have lost just one of 11 against bottom half sides but they have not yet beat a side above them in the table.
Who has impressed?
Andrew Dallas is a goal scored away from being the first player to complete the double-double for goals and assists this season, which deserves applause. I remain impressed by the pacey and versatile Ryan Barnett, a player that is probably missing the giant Kyle Hudlin at the back post. Callum Howe was performing well before injury and James Clarke remains as consistent as ever.
Predictions for the rest of the season
Solihull Moors will have hoped for so much better this season and yet, they are 7th in the table with a game or two in hand on those around them and a manager who has regularly proven his teams gets stronger as the season progresses. I think the break caused by cup competitions and postponements through December will give them a great chance to refresh, get the defensive building blocks back in place and manage the workloads of key players as they return to full fitness (Ryan Boot, Callum Howe, Alex Gudger, Kyle Storer and Jamey Osborne have all endured issues). I think we will see a more consistent selection moving forward, as well an addressing of their attacking shortcomings, namely an attacking target that can bring out the best of those around him.
Southend United
League Position: 6th
Record: Pld 22; W 9; D 7; L 6; F 30; A 20; GD +10; Pts 34
Pre-season thoughts
5th.
Real unity between fans, management and players. Recruitment much improved with a clear identity forming. Squad of a good age, good depth and well coached with a real statesman figure in charge. Lack of goals would stop them challenging for title. That, and Ron Martin.
The story of the season to date
There are two sides to the Southend United story. Firstly, the ownership. Ron Martin remains owner of the football club, they’ve been put under yet another transfer embargo and it feels as though HMRC are never too far away. Then there is the football, which is going remarkably well considering the hurdles the football people at the club are having to jump through to improve the club’s situation on the pitch amid off-field issues. Defensively, they were the outstanding side in the division until a couple of recent slips against bottom half sides, which is impressive considering they’ve not had their first-choice goalkeeper available since match day four. Where they have fallen short is goals scored, unhelped by a lack of consistent selection in the final third. Maher has been unable to consistently call upon Jake Hyde while Marcus Dackers’ loan was cut short due to their embargo.
What do the numbers tell us?
That if the second youngest squad in the division (based on minutes played) can sort out their finishing, they’re in with a great shot of promotion. Defensively, they are excellent. Only Wrexham have conceded fewer goals. Only two sides have conceded fewer first half goals and second half goals. They’ve kept clean sheets in half of their league matches and rank fourth for xGA. The primary reason they are sixth and not higher is the lack of ruthlessness in their attack. They rank third for xG, have had the third most shots in the league and third most corners. Yet, no side has seen a smaller percentage of their shots hit the target. Improving that might just help them against the better sides – they have won eight of 13 against sides in the bottom 13 but two of 12 against the top 14.
If you want more in-depth numbers, visit @shrimperstats on Twitter.
Who has impressed?
It’s all about the defence. Kacper Lopata’s return on a permanent basis was the catalyst for huge improvement defensively. Shaun Hobson and Ollie Kensdale have more than played their part in that time while Gus Scott-Morriss looks another gem at right-wing-back after a disrupted start. Teenage goalkeeper Collin Andeng-Ndi has performed admirably in the absence of Steve Arnold in net, Cavaghn Miley has done what has been expected of him in midfield and Jack Bridge has taken on much of the creative burden.
Predictions for the rest of the season
It’s all about the process for Southend United. Despite having a couple of wobbles, they have been one of the strongest sides in the division from a performance point of view and I’ve little doubt they will hit another long stretch of form. The key to their play-off hopes, and perhaps a home tie in the eliminator, may well be the fitness of their forwards, who provide as much to the side in the final third as they do to the overall structure of a side that doesn’t concede many goals.
Torquay United
League Position: 22nd
Record: Pld 23; W 4; D 6; L 13; F 27; A 46; GD –19; Pts 18
Pre-season thoughts
9th.
Worried about the big squad churn and losing big characters, including a lot of goals. Also wasn’t big on their recruitment. However, I backed Gary Johnson, his ability to problem solve and improve his squad as the season went on. Signings all of a good age and a couple of leaders remained.
The story of the season to date
For the most part, Torquay United have stunk the place out. They held out in the opening two games, picking up four points against Oldham Athletic and FC Halifax Town but variance caught on quickly and they lost the next four, the start of a run of 19 matches during which they won two and found themselves rooted to the bottom of the table. It wasn’t undeserved either. Typically, Johnson has used the market to his advantage and improved the side enough to take them off the bottom but the work is nowhere near done.
What do the numbers tell us?
That “Gary Time” is no more. Only Yeovil Town have scored fewer goals in the final 15 minutes of matches and no side has conceded more (15). In fact, Torquay have only outscored their opposition in the second half of matches twice all season. They’re also yet to win back-to-back matches, have the worst home record (one win) and only three sides have conceded more goals. In terms of performance metrics, only Yeovil are recording worse xG for and nobody has a worse xGA. They’re also creating the lowest xG per chance, despite having the highest shots to shots on target accuracy. The lack of structure and confidence likely plays a part in Torquay having the worst discipline in terms of cards accrued (52 yellows, three reds). A curious statistic is that Torquay are averaging 54% possession at home but 41% away, comfortably the biggest swing in the league.
Who has impressed?
It took a while but a few are starting to show up now. Aaron Jarvis is impressing, showing a level of consistent performance that has often eluded him during his career, proving a real handful alongside his strike partner Will Goodwin who has a raw power and enthusiasm to his game. Tom Lapslie (when fit) and Dean Moxey have retained Johnson’s faith. The raw pace of Dillon De Silva has been a positive asset to a side lacking speed.
Predictions for the rest of the season
There’s still this part of me that believes Gary Johnson will get things right eventually. He’s a problem solver, somebody who works out what he needs to improve his side and goes for it. He’s often so shrewd in those situations. It makes their summer recruitment over the last two seasons all the more confusing, as if he’s tried to repeat the feat of their 2020-21 campaign on the cheap before all parties realise that they are desperately short in so many areas. Improvement this season hasn’t been as dramatic as last season and they lack the same level of quality to bail them out. However, while it may be tight, I think Johnson might just get this group over the line.
Wealdstone
League Position: 12th
Record: Pld 22; W 8; D 6; L 8; F 26; A 33; GD –7; Pts 30
Pre-season thoughts
24th.
Fan of Maynard and knew they would be hard to beat. Worried that nine of their 14 wins last season came against the bottom seven and this would be a tougher division. Was unsure new signings would have same hunger to prove people wrong.
The story of the season to date
It’s likely that if you offered those at Wealdstone 20th place come the end of the season, they’d have taken it. After all, they remain one of three part-time clubs in the National League. They’re currently 12th. Stuart Maynard and his team have performed way above expectations again thanks to excellent player recruitment and being tactically shrewd, always happy to make changes during games depending on game state. Those in-game changes have played a key part in their form too, Wealdstone often defensively strong (their overall record looks worse due to a brief spell where a number of players missed with injury) and therefore able to get on the right side of fine margins.
What do the numbers tell us?
That Wealdstone have real staying power despite being one of three part-time National League outfits. They don’t start well. They have led just four matches at half time, scored first on seven occasions (both second lowest) and been ahead for 15.9% of minutes (third lowest). But if you split games into 15 minutes segments, only five other sides have scored more than they’ve conceded in the latter two segments (final half hour), and they are all in the top eight. Keeping things tight has been key. The Stones don’t have a consistent attacking threat, taking the third fewest shots and having the fourth lowest xG for but remove the five-game spell in which they conceded 17 goals and it’s 16 conceded in 17 matches. Their ability to beat the lesser sides in the division is key they are unbeaten at home against sides 10th or lower and have won six and lost one of ten overall against sides 14th or lower.
Who has impressed?
Who hasn’t? Wealdstone’s players have really stood up to the task. Sam Howes has proven an excellent addition in goal and Jack Cook has led by example in front of him around a largely youthful defence, which has included Deji Elewere and Charlie Barker, further evidence of the club’s fruitful relationship with Charlton Athletic. Rhys Browne continued his fine form from the end of last season before being sold to Woking, whose ex-employees Max Kretzschmar and Tarryn Allarakhia have stood out with and without him, providing creativity in different forms. A word for Ashley Charles too who is getting better and better.
Predictions for the rest of the season
I think Wealdstone will do similar to what they did last year. The Stones were remarkably tight and almost never completely outgunned last season, their games almost always drawn or separated by the odd goal – 24 of 29 to be exact. That was until March time when survival was all but secured and games seemed to open up more – seven of the remaining 15 separated by more than a one goal margin. I think we’ll see similar here. The Stones’ primary aim is to survive and once that is all but secured, I can see them enjoying themselves a little more. It’s not a bad thing either – they’ll have absolutely earned it.
Woking
League Position: 4th
Record: Pld 22; W 12; D 4; L 6; F 37; A 22; GD +15; Pts 40
Pre-season thoughts
8th.
Good manager. Improved squad. Good resource available. Strong, experienced core and a impressive midfield. Wondered if Darren Sarll could keep his preferred 13/14 on the pitch for the majority of the season and whether there was enough goals to propel them above others.
The story of the season to date
Things could scarcely be going better for Woking. In many ways, they’re exactly what I expected them to be – a version of Sarll’s Yeovil side but with better quality over the pitch. His side are not only competent in denying the opposition goalscoring chances, they are able to create better openings and spend more time in the final third rather than relying on counter-attacks and set-pieces. To be fourth at this stage of the season is a testament to the quality of coaching and recruitment. Everybody is contributing too – while Sarll has had the fortune of being able to field a consistent defensive unit, he has had to chop and change his forward options at times but rarely to the deficit of the team’s structure and attacking output.
What do the numbers tell us?
That Woking are miserly and you may as well call time on games they take the lead in. Only two sides have conceded fewer first half goals (9) and they also rank third for clean sheets (41%). When they take the lead in matches, they are almost impenetrable, scoring first on ten occasions and conceding two goals in those matches. Clearly, having an experienced unit (oldest side in the division – average age of 29.3 based on minutes played) is useful for your team’s defensive organisation – they have the third best xGA in the league. Their speciality appears to be beating poor football teams – they’ve played each of the bottom six and won each match.
Who has impressed?
It’s difficult to single players out in this group. Dan Moss and Josh Casey have been superb at full back despite serious competition. Scott Cuthbert is showing all of his EFL experience at the heart of defence. Rohan Ince remains one of the finest midfielders in the league, a protector that can play. James Daly looks to be everything Sarll values in a player – high energy, tenacious, diligent and delivers in the final third. Reece Grego-Cox is putting up excellent numbers and is supported ably by Padraig Amond.
Predictions for the rest of the season
I think Woking remain in the top seven. They have a good manager, are well coached, really good structure, plenty of options and a budget that enables them to improve further should Sarll see fit to do so. Their recruitment has been exceptional too. Can they break into the top three ahead of Chesterfield and be an automatic semi-finalist in the play-offs? I’m less sure. That’s more down the quality of the other sides more than an issue on Woking’s part, however. They’re still early into their journey and a finish that gives them a home tie in the play-off eliminator is a fantastic start.
Wrexham
League Position: 2nd
Record: Pld 22; W 15; D 5; L 2; F 55; A 19; Pts 50
Pre-season thoughts
1st.
Everything in place. Culture set previous season, a season in which they got stronger and stronger. Finished second with best xG for and most goals scored. Further improved XI and depth of squad over summer. Only thing that would stop them would be weight of expectation.
The story of the season to date
The expectation is for Wrexham to win the league and win it comfortably given the financial resource, big named manager and star-studded squad. That they are second means every dropped point is highlighted more. They shouldn’t be anywhere near panicking, however. Sure, they have dropped a couple more points than they’d have hoped on the road but to reach match day 22 having accrued 2.27 points per game is impressive – keep to that record and they finish with over 100 points at the end of the season. Wrexham might not be as openly stylish as their fellow title challengers but they more than make it for it with substance and a ruthless streak.
What do the numbers tell us?
That Wrexham are very good and probably cursing their luck at the strength of Notts County’s start. They rank first for goals conceded (19), home form (ten wins from ten) and home goals scored (37), second half record (most scored, most conceded, lost one) most points won (7) and most scored (13) in the final 15 minutes of matches, scoring four or more goals in games (6) and conceding one or zero (19/22). Oh, and attendance. Let’s not forget that. They then rank second (and often a close second) for goals scored (55), away record (20 points in 12 games), first half record, first half goals scored, scoring three or more goals in games (10), scoring first (14), xG for, possession (55%) and shots (334). They even rank high for squad age (second oldest side based on minutes played) and discipline (best in the league, 22 yellow cards and no reds).
Who has impressed?
Aaron Hayden has been the big dog for Wrexham, the centre half not only helping keep the ball out of his own net but scoring nine goals, making him joint seventh top in the National League goalscoring charts. The front pairing of Paul Mullin and Ollie Palmer have picked up where they left off last season and remain key to the club’s promotion ambitions – both are into double figures for the season. Luke Young remains a pillar of consistency and Elliott Lee has quickly established himself as a fan favourite.
Predictions for the rest of the season
Wrexham need to achieve just over two points per game to remain on course for 100 points and I would back them to do that. Their starting XI is strong and consistent. They have far better depth this time round so losing a player doesn’t immediately weaken the team and though Phil Parkinson may not be the sexiest name, he has overseen promotion campaigns and will know the job at hand. Calling the title race is difficult but I’m confident Wrexham beat last season’s tally at a minimum, which keeps them week in contention.
Yeovil Town
League Position: 19th
Record: Pld 22; W 4; D 11; L 7; F 17; A 21; GD –4; Pts 23
Pre-season thoughts
22nd.
Felt Chris Hargreaves spoke well and the squad built worked on paper. Tom Knowles remained at the time too. Worried about new culture being built amid off-field issues and breakdown in relationship between fans and ownership. Could they retain same resilience that served them well under Sarll.
The story of the season to date
It’s been a really strange one looking in from the outside. My impression of Chris Hargreaves’ tenure is that he wasn’t the man fans wanted in the first place, seen as a cheap alternative and somebody that would get on board with what their much-maligned ownership want. It meant he needed to do something special to win them over but that never came – his 17 matches saw two wins, 12 goals scored and an FA Cup Fourth Round Qualifying Round defeat against nearby Taunton Town. It also saw a number of players played out of normal positions, much to the frustration of fans. Mark Cooper has since taken the reins and though the style remains similar, he’s been honest in his assessments and has the managerial track record to buy himself time as he bids to turn the tide.
What do the numbers tell us?
If you want to be entertained with goals, avoid Yeovil Town. Their games on average produce 1.73 goals per game, almost 0.5 goals less per game than any other side in the division. Just 23% of their matches have involved three or more goals and none have seen more than four. In one way, it’s a testament to their defensive shape. Only Wrexham and Southend United have conceded fewer goals, no side has conceded fewer first half goals, they are one of two sides yet to concede more than two goals in a match and have been behind for 14.7% of minutes played (third lowest). The flip side is their poor attack. No side has scored fewer than their 17. They have scored at least five goals fewer than any other side in the second half of matches, failed to score in 41% of matches, scored more than two goals in a game once, taken the fewest shots (38 lower than nearest), have the lower xG for total and third worst xG per chance created. Staying power is also an issue. They’ve only won three second halves and have won zero and lost seven points in the final 15 minutes of matches (second worst). Yeovil are one of five sides yet to win back-to-back matches and are one of three yet to win away from home.
Who has impressed?
A case for the defence. Grant Smith in goal has barely put a foot wrong all season and has been helped by a defensive unit that has ensured he has yet to concede more than two goals in a league match. Josh Staunton and Matt Worthington have been key to that resilience, stepping up as squad leaders in the absence of those that departed over the summer. Owen Bevan, on loan from Bournemouth, has impressed at the heart of the defence. Jamie Reckord has given the side an outlet down the left and has even chipped in with a couple of goals.
Predictions for the rest of the season
It’s not going to be pretty but I think Mark Cooper keeps Yeovil in the division. An experienced operator, he’s quickly worked out what his squad and budget allows him to do and he’s working to that, appreciating the difficulty of the task ahead. The approach appears to involve a little more aggression, physicality and togetherness and the aim for Cooper is utilising what little budget is available to move parts around and improve his side bit by bit, gradually improving their attacking output, however direct the style in the meantime. I don’t see their defensive record changing much but I expect them to be more efficient as the season goes on, at least until survival is achieved.
York City
League Position: 16th
Record: Pld 23; W 7; D 7; L 9; F 26; A 24; GD +2; Pts 28
Pre-season thoughts
11th.
The takeover felt like a huge bonus and they clearly had money to spend. John Askey and fans built a good bond and felt recruitment was excellent, Askey able to rely upon an experienced group and a number of players he knew from previous jobs. A lot of churn and probably wouldn’t be ruthless enough in both boxes.
The story of the season to date
For a while, it was going quite well. York returned to the National League, armed with a competitive squad and a former league title winning manager. After 14 games, they were in the top seven, Askey and his team coaching a clear structure with an obvious avenue for attack and strength from set-pieces. There was a small dip in form but nothing too alarming when a couple of interviews from chairman Glen Henderson and Askey were released, opening up about a less-than-happy relationship behind the scenes, particularly around budget and playing style. A couple of weeks later, Askey was sacked, to the dismay of fans. The side went on to lose back-to-back games for the first time and there is a disconnect that new manager David Webb has been tasked with fixing.
What do the numbers tell us?
That York’s game has been about keeping it tight and making the most of moments. York have kept one or zero goals in a match on 17 occasions, joint second most in the division. However, they have also scored more than twice just once, joint lowest. It’s unsurprising, therefore, that their average goals per game is 2.17, the second lowest in the league. In being dogged, they have also not been afraid to get stuck in, giving away the third most fouls. The drop off in form never helps but their xG numbers suggest it is regression to the mean rather than bad luck – they sit in the bottom half for xG and xGA.
Who has impressed?
Dan Pybus was a late entry to the York City squad but he’s the one that has caught my eye, a tenacious midfielder who knows his strengths, knows his role and plays it well. The attacking link up between Maziar Kouhyar, a two-footed winger with excellent delivery, and Lenell John-Lewis, a powerful forward who occupies defenders, has been key to much good about York in the final third. Ethan Ross has been a positive in net while I’m looking forward to seeing more of Maxim Kouogun and Sam Sanders at centre back.
Predictions for the rest of the season
Almost impossible to say at this juncture. They have sacked the manager that won promotion and was adored by fans, replaced him with a guy that has a fantastic CV but has never managed a football team before and the ownership situation remains somewhat in the air after Glen Henderson put his shares up for sale. It would be silly to make any sweeping judgements on Webb without seeing him in action for a period of time. An upturn in results wouldn’t surprise me given tensions between board and management have been removed from the training ground. However, Webb spent his first interview talking mostly about his CV, name checking famous people and talking about the long-term but he needs to make improvements in the short-term too if York are to reach the standards expected of their board and supposed budget. And he has to do with some upheaval behind the scenes too.
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